MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 24-03-22

Executive Summary:

• US President Joe Biden’s European trip has kicked off in Brussel with an extraordinary NATO summit. Later on today he will deliver remarks at a G7 summit and finish with a speech at an EU Council meeting. A key issue for NATO is where to draw ‘red lines’ if Russia uses chemical or biological weapons.
• The White House has assembled a team of national security officials to outline the United States response if Putin uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The ‘Tiger Team’ will also examine scenarios if Russia attacks supply routes to Ukraine within NATO territory.
• The White House was non-committal but left open the possibility that Russia could be ejected from the G20. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said: ‘We don't believe it can be business as usual with Russia and international institutions...'
• A well publicised trend of the Latino vote towards the Republican party may not be materialising. ‘…An analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other. Presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demographic groups.’
• Public support for judge Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation is the highest measured for any recent nominee with 58 percent of Americans saying the Senate should vote in favour of Jackson.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 24-03-22 .pdf