MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 30-03-22

Executive Summary:

• The first ceasefire talks in two weeks between Ukraine and Russia initially reported positive progress yesterday, but US officials have since warned that Russia may be using talks to regroup for a new offensive.
• Tod Wolters, commander of US and NATO forces in Europe, told the US Senate that he expects more US troops will be needed long-term in Europe as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are already more than 100,000 US personnel deployed to Central and Eastern Europe and, should this number rise or become permanent, it could affect the proposed ‘pivot to the East’ in US policy, intended to counter the rise of China.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is confident that 'America COMPETES' will make it to President Biden's desk, but conference to resolve the House and Senate versions of the bill is likely to encounter stiff resistance from Republican conferencees aware of the value of the bill to Democrats ahead of the midterms.
• Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told reporters that he does not support the plan in Biden's budget to tax the unrealised gains of billionaires, believing it would set a dangerous precedent.
• Members of Congress still believe the White House has a communication problem over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Reactions from lawmakers following the House briefing on the Iran nuclear deal inside.
• Poll of the Day: Voter concern over inflation is the highest since the early 80s.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 30-03-22 .pdf