MNI POLITICAL RISK- House GOP Pans Senate Border Security Bill

Executive Summary:

• Senate negotiators have released the final text of their long-awaited US-Mexico border security bill - part of a USD$118 billion package which includes aid for Ukraine and other US allies. The bill proposes the biggest overhaul of border policy in decades but faces a narrow pathway through Congress amid robust opposition from former President Donald Trump and House Republican leadership.
• To undermine the border package, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will hold a vote this week on a standalone USD$17.6 billion Israel bill. Johnson's has angered some conservatives by dropping a measure to cut IRS funding but the bill will address a key Republican priority and may pick up votes from pro-Israel Democrats who will be put in a challenging position.
• The Biden administration’s response to an attack on a US base in Jordan which killed three US personnel is underway, striking dozens of targets in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. If the response, expected to continue in the coming days, fails to deter future attacks from Iranian proxies there will be questions about strategy and risk of a direct confrontation with Iran.
• President Biden secured a landslide victory in Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary - the first delegate-awarding contest of the Democratic presidential nomination process.
• Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley continues to draw in campaign money as she keeps her exceptionally long-shot White House bid alive.
• Poll of the Day: Trump is leading President Biden across nearly all metrics in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily050224.pdf