MNI POLITICAL RISK - Johnson Tees Up Showdown W/Conservatives

Executive Summary:

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has released a three-bill package to fund Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. A fourth bill will be moved under the same rule which includes a range of policy items.
• Johnson will need Democrat support twice to move the package. First, Democrats will likely need to take the rare step of aiding the majority party discharging the package from the House Rules Committee. Second, Democrats will need to vote in favour of the rule to open debate on the floor.
• In light of the decision to aid Ukraine, Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) may trigger a vote to oust Johnson which would ripen during the week starting April 29. We run through the ways this could play out inside.
• President Biden made a pitch to his union base, fired a shot at China, and sought to undercut Trump’s tariff agenda in Pittsburgh yesterday.
• Trump has indicated he may be open to new middle-class tax cuts if he is re-elected.
• Russia and the Middle East are in focus today as G7 foreign ministers meet in Capri, Italy.
• The Arizona abortion ruling has shifted the dial on down-ballot Congressional races in the state.
• Members of the Kennedy family will endorse Biden today, a personal rebuke to Robert F Kennedy Jr's White House bid.
• The US will reapply sanctions on the Venezuelan energy sector, a move which could exacerbate the migrant crisis and squeeze oil prices.
• Poll of Day: Biden polls strongly with young voters but below a baseline for successful Democratic presidential bids.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily180424.pdf