MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump On Track For GOP Nomination

Executive Summary:

• Former President Donald Trump notched up his second win in as many weeks yesterday, defeating former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary, and leaving little doubt that he will take the Republican presidential nomination.
• The result may not be strong enough for Haley to extend her campaign until the South Carolina primary on February 24. Should she persist until South Carolina, she risks a political damaging defeat which could impact her future political aspirations.
• On the Democrat side, President Biden avoided damaging messaging by easily fending off challenges from Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson.
• Senator James Lankford (R-OK), the lead Republican negotiator in border security talks, yesterday confirmed widely reported suspicions that a final bill text “probably” won’t be released this week.
• The bipartisan tax deal, arguably the most significant piece of legislation currently under consideration in Congress, appear set for a House vote next week.
• President Biden will deliver remarks at the United Auto Workers annual conference today where he is expected to pick up a key endorsement from UAW chief Shawn Fain.
• White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has welcomed yesterday’s decision by the Turkish parliament to drop a lengthy blockade on Sweden’s accession to NATO.
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will today mark up legislation which would authorise the transfer of frozen Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine.
• Poll of the Day: President Biden has lost considerable support in New York since 2020.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily240124.pdf