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MNI RBA Review - August 2023: Holding Onto Employment Gains

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA left rates at 4.1% at its August meeting but retained its tightening bias, in line with our expectations. Its reasons for pausing for a second consecutive month were unchanged from July. Importantly it appears that the RBA’s forecasts are broadly unchanged from May.
  • While “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required” it will now depend upon the “data and the evolving assessment of risks”, thus RBA decisions have become even more data dependent and contingent on risks to its forecasts.
  • Whether rates peak at 4.1% or higher seems as though it is going to depend on whether firms still have enough pricing power to pass higher costs onto customers. Currently it is unclear whether this is the case. All meetings will be highly data dependent but November looks most likely for a hike – depending on Q3 CPI.

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RBA Review - August 2023.pdf

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