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MNI RBNZ Preview - October 2023: Prolonged Pause, Watch Inflation Risks

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBNZ is highly likely to keep rates at 5.5% at its October 4 meeting, which is inline with a unanimous consensus. Given the upcoming election and key data and forecasts following October’s meeting, the RBNZ is unlikely to change the tone of its comments significantly this month or hint at possible forecast revisions. It will probably reiterate its higher for longer monetary policy view while retaining its neutral stance.
  • While we don’t expect there to be major changes to the meeting statement, it will be watched closely for any discussion of upside risks to the inflation outlook and indications that forecasts might be revised higher.
  • Q3 CPI data is published on October 17 and inflation expectations on November 8. These are always important inputs into RBNZ decision making but this quarter they will be watched closely for signs of second-round effects from higher fuel prices, which would be a significant issue given that core inflation is yet to turn down. Thus there is uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the November 29 meeting.

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