MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues Correction, Initially Of Gains From $1.2165

*RES 4: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1.2494 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1.2433 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2395/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2348 @1705GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2320/23 Equality fall from $1.2494, Jan 17 high

*SUP 2: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*SUP 3: $1.2284 1.618 swing of $1.2364-$1.2494

*SUP 4: $1.2253 76.4% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band last Thursday, before

retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close

has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While

$1.2494-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Support from $1.2364

has been lost today, opening up deeper corrective potential, initially of gains

from the Jan 17 low at $1.2165. Interim resistance $1.2395-$1.2433.

CABLE TECHS: Pulling Back After Faltering Ahead Of $1.4368 Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.4287 Jan 26 high

*RES 3: $1.4208 Hourly recovery high Jan 26

*RES 2: $1.4159 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.4100/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4043 @1715GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4024/28 Equality fall from $1.4287, Jan 23 high

*SUP 2: $1.4007/17 38.2%$1.3458-$1.4346,76.4% $1.3916-$1.4346

*SUP 3: $1.3957 1.618 swing of $1.4083-$1.4287

*SUP 4: $1.3902/16 50% of $1.3458-$1.4346, Jan 23 low

*COMMENTARY* As suggested last Thursday, the overstepping of the upper 2%

volatility band, at $1.4277 by time today, is never a long lasting scenario, so

always cautious when it happens. The subsequent fall from $1.4346-$1.4083 was

the first warning of some heavily overbought conditions. Today's further losses,

opening up deeper $1.4024-$1.3957 potential. Meanwhile, $1.4100-$1.4110 provides

initial resistance, ahead of the day's $1.4159 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Decent Support Holds From Between Y108.27-Y108.22

*RES 4: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y109.77 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: Y109.42/48 Hourly highs Jan 25-26

*RES 1: Y109.20/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.16 @1717GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 3: Y107.89 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower on Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28 so far, before recovering swiftly, aided by some heavily oversold hourly

conditions. Now looking at Y109.20-Y109.25 for initial resistance

Y109.42-Y109.48 higher. There is still decent support from Y108.27-Y108.22 and

this currently protects against a further Y107.72-Y107.44 fall. Probably need a

rally through Y109.77 before any real upside belief will follow.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Recent Y133.05-Y136.31 Gains 

*RES 4: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*RES 3: Y135.80/85 Hourly congestion Jan 26

*RES 2: Y135.41/49 Hourly base Jan 25, hourly high Jan 26

*RES 1: Y135.10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y134.90 @1725GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.20/30 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31

*SUP 2: Y133.82 76.4% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31

*SUP 3: Y133.69 6 month rising support line

*SUP 4: Y133.05 Jan 10 low

*COMMENTARY* Has slipped below the recent range base at Y134.92, thereby

allowing some further correction of the most recent Y133.05-Y136.31 rise. In

this respect, a deeper Y134.30-Y133.82 fall cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile,

resistance is noted from beneath Y135.10 but rallies will likely require a move

back through Y135.41-Y135.49 before near term upside focus is regained and a

move back towards Y135.80-Y135.85.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Continues Eyeing 61.8% Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8838

*RES 4: Stg0.8873 76.4% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high, 61.8% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8816 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8796 @1730GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8767 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8745 Hourly support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8724 Jan 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8711 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed on Thursday, a slightly

lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. This now allows some interim

Stg0.8767-Stg0.8711 support above. The sustained move back through

Stg0.8770-Stg0.8775 is encouraging and suggests some correction of losses from

the month's earlier Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 highs, with the Jan 18 high and 61.8%

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8838 now the next barrier to surmount.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23

*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2360/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2339 @1732GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2278/82 1% volatility band, Jan 25 low

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2154 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355

behind, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band, at

$1.2278 by time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next

protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is seen from

$1.2360-$1.2370 but needing to escape $1.2400 before any correction has room to

breathe.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1348.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1341.0 @1743GMT

*SUP 1: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1333.2-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]