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Month-end Dynamics in Play Ahead of Friday NFP

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Corrective pullback from Friday's high of $1.1975 extended to $1.1902 Monday with month-end flows dictated direction.
  • Monday's value was for June month-end and US corporate USD demand was seen in play.
  • Wednesday month-end though preliminary models showing weak signals for USD sales. US Weekly Claims Thursday and Friday NFP lurk in the background.
  • Support remains around $1.1900 ($1.1902 Jun28 low/$1.1897 61.8% $1.1848-1.1975) a break to open a deeper move toward $1.1880($1.1878 76.4%) ahead of $1.1848(Jun18-21 low). Resistance $1.1930, $1.1945/50, $1.1958(76.4% $1.1975-02) ahead of $1.1975.
  • Germany state CPI to be released through this morning ahead of the pan-Germany release at 1200GMT(median 0.3%mm, 2.1%yy). EZ Consumer Confidence 0900GMT. US S&P/Case-Schiller, FHFA House prices 1300GMT.
  • Fed Barkin(hawk) in virtual discussion hosted by MNI 1300GMT,. ECB Lagarde 1340GMT, ECB Villeroy 1545GMT, Weidmann (hawk) 1600GMT.
  • MNI Techs: A bearish theme follows recent sharp losses between Jun 15 - 18. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA and a former support at 1.2104, Jun 4 low, highlighting a bearish theme and confirming a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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