MoS-PM Truss Informed 15% Of Party Has Submitted No Confidence Letters

Dan Hodges at the Mail on Sunday: "Understand Liz Truss has been informed by Graham Brady the traditional threshold of letters for a leadership challenge has been breached. But he is insisting on a threshold of half the parliamentary party before acting."

• The threshold for triggering a leadership election is 15% of sitting Conservative MPs, which at present would equate to 54 members. However, under current leadership rules, Truss cannot be challenged for her first year as leader.
• If half of the party (178 MPs) submit letters of no confidence then it appears Chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservatives would view this as significant enough to push for a change in rules (which are decided by the 1922 executive). Still no guarantee of a 'unity candidate' being agreed to that would avoid another divisive and lengthy members vote (presuming MPs allow members to decide leader again).
• Betting markets see former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as the strong favourite to be the next PM, with a 31.8% implied probability according to Smarkets, with new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt second with an 18.5% chance. Notably, bettors do not believe there is a strong likelihood of Truss leading the Conservatives into the next election, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer given a 9.1% implied probability of being the next PM.

Source: Smarkets