Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub on the Rise

US Henry Hub front month is to close stronger. Having held most of its gains during European trading, a late surge near US close is pushing it near to the daily high of $3.125/MMBtu. Cooling weather forecasts and strong overseas demand for LNG remain supportive.

• US Natgas DEC 23 up 5.6% at 3.2$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAY 24 up 2.3% at 3.09$/mmbtu
• Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals have dropped from their recent near record levels to 14.39 bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• The power draw at the Freeport LNG terminal decreased dramatically from 8:00ET (13:00GMT) on Monday, indicating the whole facility may be offline according to a Genscape report.
• Flows to the Freeport LNG terminal, however, seem unaffected on Monday and were at 2.13bcf/d up from the 30-day moving
• Domestic natural gas demand has dipped counter to the seasonal rising trend to fall below the five year average to 81.0bcf/d today according to Bloomberg. The current weather forecast shows a mixed picture with above normal temperatures across most of the country later this week giving way to below normal coming in from the west for the 8-14 day period according to the NOAA forecast.
• Domestic natural gas production remains strong up at 105.2bcf/d today according to Bloomberg and roughly in line with the average so far in November.
• Production of gas across seven shale regions in expected to be 99.64 bcf/d in December, down 300 mmcf/d, according to the EIA drilling productivity report.
• Israel’s pipeline natural gas flows to Egypt are currently at around 350-400mcf/d, still around 50% lower than prior to the conflict, a person familiar with the numbers told Bloomberg. Israel ordered Chevron to resume production at the 10bcm/yr Tamar natural gas field that was forced to halt production on 9 October according to a filing on Sunday by Isramco, stakeholder in the field.
• Spain may need to block LNG arrivals as the country’s regasification tanks are nearly at 100% full, TSO Enagas said Friday.
• Spain’s Sagunto LNG terminal has reloaded two cargoes in recent days according to ICIS, indicating Europe is still comfortably supplies at the start of the winter heating season.
• The switching of coal for gas in European power generation is a highly price responsive source of gas demand flexibility with an influence on global as well as European pricing according to Timera Energy.