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Nedbank Still See First SARB Cut in Sept

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Nedbank write that their South Africa inflation forecasts indicate that headline inflation will likely remain stuck around the 5.3% level over the next three months and only start to recede steadily, albeit slowly, from July onwards, dipping below 5% in September and ending the year at 4.6%.
  • They see today's sticky inflation outcomes and upside risks further validating the generally cautious and hawkish undertone adopted by the MPC at the March meeting.
  • Consequently, they do not see much reason to change our interest rate forecast and still expect the MPC to hold rates unchanged for much of the year, with the first cut of 25 bps forecast for September, followed by another 25-bps reduction in November.

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