Netanyahu Coalition Well Short Of Maj In Latest Poll

The latest opinion polling from outlet Lazar shows PM Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition well short of a majority if its findings were reflected in a general election. The poll has the combined parties of gov't on 48 seats, under the 61 seat threshold required for a majority. Even after the withdrawal of Benny Gantz and his moderate National Unity Party from gov't earlier in June, Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its Orthodox and ultranationalist partners still carry a majority.

• The governing coalition is anything but secure in its place, though. Netanyahu is under increasing pressure from allies, including the US, to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The PM has said this cannot happen unless Hamas has been degraded to the point it cannot operate as a governing force in Gaza. However, Netanyahu's ultranationalist partners want Hamas wiped out entirely, an aim that would take many years to achieve.
• The agreement of a ceasefire could see Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party or Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit withdraw support from Netanyahu. This would deny the gov't a majority and presage a vote of no confidence and snap elections.
• Lazar, 19 June, seat projection: NUP: 23 (+15), Likud: 22 (-10), YA: 16 (-8), YB: 14 (+8), Shas: 10 (-1), OY: 9 (+3), UTJ: 7, Labor: 5 (+1), Hadash-Ta'al: 5, Ra'am: 5, Meretz: 4 (+4), RZP: 0 (-7), NH: 0 (-4). Chgs since 2022 election.