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GASOLINE: Nigeria’s Gasoline Imports to Hit Floor in 2027: LEF

GASOLINE
Energy BulletsBulletCommodities

Nigeria’s gasoline imports will shrink due to the ramp up of the 650k b/d Dangote refinery, but will not hit zero due to demand growth, Platts analysts said at the LEF

  • Nigeria’s imports should hit a floor or 50k b/d by 2027, before demographics and economic growth lift that back up. It is currently around 200k b/d.
  • The current decline is expected to be felt strongly in the EU, whose own domestic demand should peak in 2026. Around 20-25% of EU gasoline exports are to Nigeria. Some of this will be offset by EU refinery closures.
  • It is expected that gasoline flows from Dangote will be prioritised for domestic use but could also be driven by export profits, Platts analyst said.
  • “A potential curve balls is if the refinery can get better prices shipping to the US,” Kelly Norways, Downstream Oil News Reporter said.
  • Earlier gasoline exports to other parts of WAF have all but dried up and are going to the local market.
  • The ramp up has left Nigeria a net exporter of jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil in 2024 and is set to be a net gasoil exporter this year, Platts analysts said.
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Nigeria’s gasoline imports will shrink due to the ramp up of the 650k b/d Dangote refinery, but will not hit zero due to demand growth, Platts analysts said at the LEF

  • Nigeria’s imports should hit a floor or 50k b/d by 2027, before demographics and economic growth lift that back up. It is currently around 200k b/d.
  • The current decline is expected to be felt strongly in the EU, whose own domestic demand should peak in 2026. Around 20-25% of EU gasoline exports are to Nigeria. Some of this will be offset by EU refinery closures.
  • It is expected that gasoline flows from Dangote will be prioritised for domestic use but could also be driven by export profits, Platts analyst said.
  • “A potential curve balls is if the refinery can get better prices shipping to the US,” Kelly Norways, Downstream Oil News Reporter said.
  • Earlier gasoline exports to other parts of WAF have all but dried up and are going to the local market.
  • The ramp up has left Nigeria a net exporter of jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil in 2024 and is set to be a net gasoil exporter this year, Platts analysts said.