No Bloc Set For Majority According To Latest Polling

Latest general election opinion polling from Midgam shows neither the pro- nor anti-Benjamin Netanyahu blocs on course to win a stable majority in the Knesset in the upcoming 1 November election. However, polls do show Netanyahu as the more favoured PM ahead of incumbent caretaker PM Yair Lapid or Defence Minister Benny Gantz.

• Midgam seat projection: Likud: 34 (-1), Yesh Atid: 23 (+3), Blue & White/New Hope: 13, Religious Zionism: 10 (+1), Shas: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Yisrael Beiteinu: 6 (+1), Joint List: 6, Labor: 5, Meretz: 4, Ra'am: 4. +/- vs. 21 June 2022. Fieldwork: 11 July 2022. Sample size: 506
• Based on this poll, Netanyahu's bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, RZ) would hold 59 seats, just short of the 61 required for a majority. The Arab-interest Joint List often acts as a 'spoiler' given that it is not inclined to work with either the pro- or anti-Netanyahu blocs.
• In another poll of head-to-head matchups on who respondents view as best suited to be PM Netanyahu comes out as the most favoured candidate, although without a majority in any scenario. Kantar poll for Channel 11, 11 July, 565 respondents:
  • Netanyahu (Likud, Conservative): 45% Lapid (YA, Liberal): 36% Neither: 19%
  • Netanyahu (Likud, Conservative): 45% Gantz (B&W, Centrist): 28% Neither: 27%
  • Lapid (YA, Liberal): 26% Gantz (B&W, Centrist): 26% Neither: 48%