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No Clear Favourite To Win Presidency In 2024


Bookmakers see no clear favourite in the race for the presidency in 2024 as campaigning draws closer.

  • According to Smarkets, President Joe Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) are marginal favourites with 25% and 24% implied probability repesectively of winning.
  • Former President Donald Trump is in a close third place with 20% and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley trailing with 4.5% implied probability of winning.
  • Campaigning will begin in earnest in the summer with President Biden expected to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks and DeSantis to follow at some point during the summer.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner (Smarkets)

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