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New York Fed Staff Nowcast

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  • Major G10 FX are largely rangebound early Thursday, with markets sitting on the sidelines ahead of tier 1 data releases and the ECB decision later today.
  • EUR/USD has inched further off the Wednesday high, but remains above 1.2150 and nearby support. The 50-day EMA undercuts at 1.2108 and marks the first major downside level ahead of the Jun 4 low at 1.2104.
  • The Norwegian policy mix became slightly more complicated this morning on the release of a set of lower than expected inflation numbers. This comes ahead of next week's Norges Bank decision, at which the bank are expected to provide their thoughts on whether a rate hike could occur as soon as September. EUR/NOK has rallied sharply following the release, with the cross narrowing in on the Friday high of 10.1784.
  • Focus turns to the ECB rate decision. While no major policy changes are expected, markets will likely pay very close attention to any language surrounding the use of the bank's PEPP asset purchase programme,. Traders look to gauge just how and when the Bank will wean markets off extraordinary monetary policy.