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NOKSEK Off Intraday Highs But NOK Still G10 Outperformer

NOK

NOKSEK has drifted off intraday highs in recent trade, with bulls unable to muster a renewed test of parity. Nevertheless, the cross remains up 0.6%, trading at 0.9973. EURNOK has moved -0.8% lower, but remains above levels seen before yesterday's strong US CPI print.

  • A reminder that while Q4 mainland GDP was a touch firmer than expected, it doesn’t really change much for the Norges Bank. Rates have most likely peaked, and a softening of underlying inflation is most important for the timing of the eventual easing cycle.
  • Brent futures remain firmer on the day. Our commodities team have pointed to a slightly softer US dollar alongside ongoing Middle Eastern tensions as drivers behind the move.
  • Tomorrow at 1700GMT/1800CET, Norges Bank Governor Bache delivers her annual address. We don't expect too much guidance on the rate path: SEB note that "the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges, and structural economic policy challenges rather than near-term policy hints".
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