Nordic August Continues Rise on EU Gains, Negative Hydro Balance

The Nordic August baseload power contract continues to trade upward on Monday, after having rebounded on 19 July, to resist price declines in TTF, as gains in both the German and French equivalents are slightly up, while a sustained negative Norwegian hydro balance is adding some support.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 up 7.5% at 30.5 EUR/MWh
  
• France Base Power AUG 24 up 1.2% at 47.95 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.6% at 70.8 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 1% at 65.63 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.9% at 31.55 EUR/MWh
• The hydrological balance across Norway has been revised up for most days over 22 July – 5 August, with the balance revised higher by as much as 340GWh on 28 July. However, the balance continues to be negative over the period and is anticipated to end at -935GWh on 5 August.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 80% of capacity today, up from 78% on 19 July amid the return of the 1.08GW Ringhals 3 nuclear unit on 21 July,
• But over August, Finland’s 507MW Loviisa unit 2 is still anticipated to be offline over 4-25 August, with the 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 disconnected over 15 August – 13 September.
• And average temperatures in the Nordics are still forecast to be mostly above the 30-year norm of around 17C over 22-31 July – only dipping slightly below over 28-29 July. And max temperatures are forecast to only reach as high 24C on 31 July – keeping a lid on cooling demand.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 17% load factor, or 0.913GW on 23 July – which could weigh on power prices on delivery –, with the wind on 24 July at a 16% load factor.