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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ASIA
North East Asia (NEA) PMIs arguably painted somewhat of a more resilient picture for November, particularly given on-going concerns around the China growth backdrop. The just released Caixin China PMI came in better than expected at 49.4 versus the 48.9 forecast. We are now above recent trough levels of 48.1 recorded in September, albeit still in contractionary territory. Today’s outcome also has to be tempered with the weaker than expected official PMI results from earlier in the week.
- The first chart below overlays the China Caixin PMI index against the South Korea and Taiwan PMIs, along with the US ISM.
- The South Korea has also trended higher since September but remains in contractionary territory (49.0 latest versus 48.2 in October). The Taiwan PMI ticked up slightly (to 41.6 from 41.5), however in levels terms we are still around 2020 lows. The detail in both survey prints showed some modest improvement.
Fig 1: NEA PMIs & The US ISM
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- The average PMI readings for these two economies is showing some signs of forming a base, but we likely need a few more months of observations to get a definitive picture.
- Global trade volumes are holding up well relative to these PMI trends, see the chart below. Note though the latest observation for global trade volumes is September.
Fig 2: Global Trade Volumes & Average South Korea/Taiwan PMI Levels
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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