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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
Norway July inflation is released tomorrow at 0700BST/0800CET, and could be key in shaping the guidance at next Thursday’s Norges Bank decision. Should the forecast error between the Norges Bank’s June MPR projections and CPI-ATE inflation increase by more than expected, it may put pressure on NB to dial back its hawkish guidance despite a weaker NOK.
- The median Bloomberg consensus currently sees CPI-ATE inflation at 3.4% Y/Y, with the Norges Bank forecasting 3.7% Y/Y in its June MPR.
- However, CPI-ATE forecasts range from 3.0% to 3.5% Y/Y, with 5 of 13 analyst estimates looking for a 3.5% print.
- In June, CPI-ATE was 3.4% Y/Y, undershooting NB projections by 0.2pp. As such, consensus expects the June MPR forecast error to tick up to 0.3pp in July.
- Analysts with below-consensus CPI-ATE calls expect food prices to rise by less in July 2024 than last year.
- Headline CPI is seen at 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior and 3.4% in the June MPR), though there is a similarly wide range of forecasts submitted. The June MPR forecast error is largely due to last month’s lower-than-expected reading.
- Some analysts expect energy base effects to push headline CPI higher.
- See the image below for a selection of analyst comments:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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