NZD/USD Ends Four Straight Session Of Gains, Falls Back Below 0.6150

NZD/USD fell for the first time in 5 session on Thursday, down 0.34% to 0.6137. The USD strengthen after slightly firmer US composite PMI data and some cautious comments from Fed’s Schmid, which pushed the 2yr yields back above 4%.

• Overnight, Weekly jobless claims data were in line with expectations, while S&P Global service PMI beats estimates at 55.2 v 54 although Manufacturing PMI surprised lower at 48.0 vs 49.5.
• The NZD/USD spent the Asian & Euro session largely rangebound, before breaking below intraday support & the Thursday lows at 0.6145, although we still trade 1.40% higher for the week. The pair remains in an upwards trend, trading well above all key moving averages, the MACD is hovering at its highest level for the year, while the 14-day RSI is now at 62.
• Initial resistance is 0.6200 (round number) above here 0.6223 becomes a target, a level we have failed to break above four times since falling below it January. Support now rests at 0.6100 (round numbers) with 200-day EMA at 0.6069 and 100-day EMA at 0.6056 seen as the next support zone
• Fonterra has lifted it's 2024-25 season forecast milk price midpoint by NZ$0.50c to NZ$8.50 per kilogram of milksolids, this follows moves from BNZ & ASB
• RBNZ dated OIS is pricing has been rather steady this week and currently is pricing in 34bps of cuts at the October meeting and 74bps of cuts by November.
• The NZ-US 2yr swap spread was little changed on Thursday we remain trading in the middle of the monthly range at 5bps
• Expiries: 0.6000 ($1.02b) & 0.5800 ($1.02b) Aug 27th NY cut
• Today, Retail Sales Ex Inflation at 08:45 AEST