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NZGBS: Mixed, Weighs Conflicting Influences From ACGBs & US Tsys

BONDS

In early local trade, NZGBs are mixed as the local market weighs conflicting influences. US tsy yields were higher overnight, but ACGBs rallied after the RBA left the cash rate unchanged. As a result, benchmark yields are -1bp to +1bp, with the 2/10 curve steeper.

  • The US tsy curve bear steepened after quickly rejecting a soft set of data: Construction Spending m/m (+0.5% vs +0.6% est); JOLTS Job Openings (9.528M vs. 9.600M est); ISM Mfg (46.4 vs. 46.9 est), Prices Paid (42.6 vs 44.0 est).
  • The ACGB 3/10 curve bull steepened with benchmark yields 5-10bp lower after the RBA left the cash rate at 4.1%.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp softer across meetings.
  • Today the local calendar will feature Q2 employment and Wage data. A 0.6% increase in employment is expected in Q2, attributed to a surge in migrant arrivals that has enabled employers to fill long-standing vacancies. However, due to the influx of migrants boosting the labour force, the unemployment rate is predicted to slightly rise to 3.5%. Private Wages Including Overtime are expected to print 1.2% q/q versus +0.9% previously. CoreLogic house prices are also due.
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