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OECD Sees Weaker Growth Ahead Amid Risks of Worsening Energy Crisis(2/2)


Alongside the Russia-Ukraine war, energy expenditure as a percentage of global GDP is forecasted to reach 17.7% in 2022, akin to the costs of the first and second oil crises (1974 and 1980/1).

  • The OECD’s energy price scenarios estimate another intense shock in 2023 would push European inflation up by a further 1.3pp while cutting GDP by 1.4pp.
  • Global energy prices could be driven higher if the European winter proves to be colder/longer than anticipated and if Chinese demand were to rebound, a result hinging on whether Covid restrictions ease.

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