Alongside the Russia-Ukraine war, energy expenditure as a percentage of global GDP is forecasted to reach 17.7% in 2022, akin to the costs of the first and second oil crises (1974 and 1980/1).

The OECD’s energy price scenarios estimate another intense shock in 2023 would push European inflation up by a further 1.3pp while cutting GDP by 1.4pp.
Global energy prices could be driven higher if the European winter proves to be colder/longer than anticipated and if Chinese demand were to rebound, a result hinging on whether Covid restrictions ease.

Data Fixed Income News Homepage markets-real-time Data Bullet Bullet Markets Emerging Markets News Foreign Exchange News

Tim Cooper

Lucy Hager

Lucy is an economic data analyst across both MNI's Markets and Data Teams in London.

Data Fixed Income News Homepage markets-real-time Data Bullet Bullet Markets Emerging Markets News Foreign Exchange News

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OECD Sees Weaker Growth Ahead Amid Risks of Worsening Energy Crisis(2/2)