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OIL: Crude Falls on Possible Saudi and Libya Supply Increase

OIL
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Crude futures and time spreads have fallen with Brent down nearly $5/bbl since a high of $75.87/bbl earlier this week on the prospect of increase supplies from Saudi Arabia and Libya. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks. Crude markets were already drifting off the high of the week amid uncertainty whether China’s monetary easing will lead to a boost in demand growth.

  • Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100/bbl and is committed to returning production as planned in December to regain market share, according to the Financial Times.
  • Representatives from Libya’s eastern and western administrations agreed to nominate Naji Issa as interim central bank governor, El-Hadi Elsaghir, a member of parliament attending UN-led crisis talks, Bloomberg reports.
  • Efforts led by Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire between Isreael and Hezbollah in Lebanon are serious and very advanced, according to Roi Kais at Kann.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories fell 4.47mbbl driven by a larger than expected drop in refinery runs amid maintenance and unplanned outages and despite a decline in weekly exports. Cushing stocks remain near tank bottom levels.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads extended gains yesterday amid stocks draws, slightly higher weekly implied demand, and falling underlying crude prices.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 2.5% at 71.62$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2.5% at 67.94$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.06$/bbl at 0.5$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.57$/bbl at 0.88$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 13.47$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 21.81$/bbl
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Crude futures and time spreads have fallen with Brent down nearly $5/bbl since a high of $75.87/bbl earlier this week on the prospect of increase supplies from Saudi Arabia and Libya. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks. Crude markets were already drifting off the high of the week amid uncertainty whether China’s monetary easing will lead to a boost in demand growth.

  • Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100/bbl and is committed to returning production as planned in December to regain market share, according to the Financial Times.
  • Representatives from Libya’s eastern and western administrations agreed to nominate Naji Issa as interim central bank governor, El-Hadi Elsaghir, a member of parliament attending UN-led crisis talks, Bloomberg reports.
  • Efforts led by Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire between Isreael and Hezbollah in Lebanon are serious and very advanced, according to Roi Kais at Kann.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories fell 4.47mbbl driven by a larger than expected drop in refinery runs amid maintenance and unplanned outages and despite a decline in weekly exports. Cushing stocks remain near tank bottom levels.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads extended gains yesterday amid stocks draws, slightly higher weekly implied demand, and falling underlying crude prices.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 2.5% at 71.62$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2.5% at 67.94$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.06$/bbl at 0.5$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.57$/bbl at 0.88$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 13.47$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 21.81$/bbl