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Oil Prices Lose Post- US CPI Gains On Higher Q4 Supply

OIL

Oil prices rallied following the lower-than-expected US CPI data but then fell to finish slightly lower on the day. The USD index is down 1.5% as the market priced in more 2024 Fed cuts, but support from this was short lived after the IEA reported that the market is not as tight in Q4 this year as expected.

  • WTI is down 0.1% to $78.21/bbl. Just before the US CPI it fell to an intraday low of $77.79 but then rose to a high of $79.77 but is now 2% below that peak. Resistance is at $80.20, October 6 low.
  • Brent is 0.2% lower at $82.39/bbl. It reached a low of $82.06 before the inflation release and then rose to a peak of $83.97, finding support at $82 and resistance at $84. Resistance is at $84.71, the 20-day EMA.
  • The IEA monthly report showed that 2023 demand was revised up 100kbd, predominantly due to China, to now be 2.4mbd higher than 2022. But supply was revised up due to higher US output, and so Q4 is not as tight as previously thought.
  • Another package of EU sanctions against Russia, including tighter reinforcement of the price cap on oil, is being finalised according to the EU’s top diplomat Borrell.
  • Bloomberg is reporting that US crude stocks rose 1.335mn in the latest week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline rose 135k barrels but distillate fell 1mn. 2 weeks of official EIA inventory data are published later today.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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