Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Weakens

Crude has been falling during the day as the market continues to shift focus away from geopolitical risk concerns and towards more pessimistic demand outlooks.

• Brent JUL 24 down 0.8% at 83.01$/bbl
• WTI JUN 24 down 0.6% at 79.29$/bbl
• Brent time spreads are following the bearish move in crude futures with the prompt spread falling to the lowest since early January despite the prospect of extended OPEC+ production cuts into H2.
• The US Fed is still looking for more evidence of slowing inflation before easing rates.
• The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET.
• The crude tanker, Dubai Angel, arrived at the Westridge Marine Terminal in Vancouver on Monday, preparing to load the first cargo from the expanded TMX pipeline: LSEG.
• The Greek Navy has resumed drills in the Laconian Gulf again until June 3, pushing away Russian oil transfers that had just returned.
• Black Sea CPC Blend crude exports via the CPC pipeline are set to rise to 5.3mn metric tons in June – up from 4.9mn in May according to Reuters sources.
• Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas has extended its contract to supply oil to Germany’s Schwedt refinery until the end of 2024, Interfax said.
• Russian ESPO Blend has pivoted away from Chinese independent refiners towards Indian refiners in recent months according to Vortexa.
• Brent is to remain rangebound and expected to average $84/bbl for the rest of the year, with WTI at $79.50/bbl: RBC.
• OPEC+ will have difficulty unwinding production cuts next year as demand growth slows, analysts Gary Ross and Ed Morse said.
• OPEC member voluntary production cuts are not expected to return to the market in 2024, according to FGE.