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Partially reversing some of yesterday's huge rally

BONDS
  • Core fixed income, particularly Bunds, is trading lower today following the huge rallies seen in both bunds and gilts yesterday.
  • There have been no real headline drivers to the move, but some moves lower given the magnitude of yesterday's moves was to be expected.
  • Looking ahead, the big release of the day is the US employment report at 13:30GMT / 8:30ET. Consensus looks for a slight moderation in payrolls growth in January to a still stronger than sustainable pace after last month’s broadly in line outcome. Annual benchmark revisions could make the initial read more complicated, but barring large surprises we suspect focus will be on AHE, which has abated a bit in the words of Powell after its own large revisions. Primary dealer analysts have an unusually distinct skew to a hawkish surprise from both AHE growth and the unemployment rate. For our full preview click here.
  • We are also due to receive the ISM services report at 15:00GMT / 10:00ET.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 115-16 with 10y UST yields up 0.1bp at 3.396% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at 4.095%.
  • Bund futures are down -1.20 today at 138.63 with 10y Bund yields up 6.8bp at 2.141% and Schatz yields up 4.4bp at 2.522%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.41 today at 107.18 with 10y yields up 3.7bp at 3.040% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 3.160%.
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