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Free AccessPBOC's Forex Position Narrows In July
BEIJING (MNI) - The foreign-exchange purchase position of the People's Bank
of China fell slightly in July, fueling expectations the purchase position will
go up in the near future.
The PBOC's foreign-exchange position fell CNY4.647 billion to CNY21.51
trillion in July, the 21th straight monthly drop, compared with a decrease of
CNY34.315 billion in June, according to data from the PBOC released on
Wednesday.
The forex purchase position is viewed as an indicator of Chinese capital
flows. The larger the decline, the larger capital outflows are seen to be.
"The narrowing of the decrease of the PBOC's forex position can be
attributed to the steady appreciation of the yuan against the dollar," Liu Jian,
a senior analyst at Bank of Communications, said on Wednesday. "As depreciation
expectations weaken further and macro- and micro-prudential regulations continue
to be strengthened, which lowers the demand for forex purchases, capital flows
are becoming more balanced."
The yuan strengthened against the dollar in July, rising from 6.7796 at the
closing on June 30 to 6.7290 on July 31.
Meanwhile, foreign-exchange reserves rose $23.93 billion to $3.081 trillion
in July, the sixth straight increase, adding to evidence that depreciation
expectations have eased.
The yuan has strengthened further in August, and was last traded at 6.6880
on Wednesday morning, leaving analysts and traders to expect a potential rise of
the PBOC's forex position in the near future, despite July's decrease.
"I actually expected the forex position to rise in July," a Shanghai-based
forex trader at a commercial bank told MNI after the PBOC data was released.
"After the recent appreciation of the yuan, the possibility for it [forex
position] to go up has become even higher."
Liu agreed with the trader, saying that he expects the forex position to
"increase in the next one or two months."
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 85325998; email: he.wei@marketnews.com
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: vince.morkri@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAQDS$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.