PM Draghi Ends Senate Address, Confidence Vote Expected Around 1845CET

Prime Minister Mario Draghi has concluded his address to the Italian Senate ahead of a confidence vote later this evening. The vote is expected at around 1845CET (1245ET, 1745BST).

• Draghi: "The confidence vote of the last Thursday certified the end of the pact of trust...If we want to stay together we must rebuild this pact."
• Draghi: "We need strong support for government action, not unjustified protests".
• Two major factors will decide whether the Draghi gov't continues or collapses. First is the populist 5-Star Movement (M5S). The party boycotted a confidence vote in the Senate last week, sparking the current crisis. Further splits in the party could see a number of senators remain on board with the Draghi gov't, allowing the PM the ability to say he has retained the party's support.
• The other is the stance of the right-wing populist League and centre-right Forza Italia. Both have stated that they would refuse to work with M5S in any administration, however the incentive to bring the gov't down is relatively small for both parties. The League now sit well behind the nationalist Brothers of Italy in opinion polls, while Forza Italia have steadily regained some previous support during time in gov't.
• The gov't will win the confidence vote, but the size of the majority is likely to determine if Draghi remains in office. A sizeable win with all League, Forza and a number of M5S senators could be enough to keep the former ECB president in position. Should either of the two parties on the right, or all M5S senators not vote with the gov't it could presage Draghi's resignation, likely resulting in an autumn general election.