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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Latest political betting data from Smarkets shows a sharp increase in the implied probability of PM Boris Johnson leaving office in 2022 following the issuance by the police of fixed penalty notices to he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak for breaches of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in 2020.
- The implied probability of Johnson leaving office in 2022 has risen to 30.3%, from a recent low of 22.7% on 10 April. The most likely exit date for Johnson according to bettors remains 2024 or later, with an implied probability of 46.7%. This has fallen from a recent high of 51.6% on 11 April.
- As noted at the height of the 'partygate' allegations, the local elections on 5 May could prove crucial for Johnson's fortunes. A very poor set of results could spark more Conservative MPs to seek his ouster.
- There is no clear 'heir apparent' should Johnson be removed/resign. The prospects of Sunak have been damaged by recent revelations about his US green card and wife's 'non-dom' tax status. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is viewed as another frontrunner, but many in the party view her as too politically lightweight to take on the PM position.
Chart 1. Impied probability of year PM Johnson leaving office, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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