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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Nick Eardley at the BBC posts on X: "PM refuses to discuss timing of election in Jeremy Vine interview. Asked about possibility of early vote in May, Rishi Sunak doesn't repeat expectation of second half of year. Although many sceptical Budget yesterday enough to move dial for early election." Sunak tells Vine "I'm not going to say anything about that".
- Sunak's centre-right Conservatives continue to trail the main opposition centre-left Labour party by double-digit margins. The calling of an election in under two month's time would be a major political gamble and be reliant on voter moods improving as the tax cuts announced in the budget on 6 March feed into pay packets, combined with Labour's plans for governing remaining largely vague at present dissuading voters from backing Sir Keir Starmer's party.
- Betting markets continue to view Q424 as the most likely time for an election, with a 76% implied probability according to Smarkets. Q224 (seen as the May election coinciding with English local elections) has a 13.5% implied probability, January 2025 is at 9.1% and Q324 at 3.9%
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Quarter of Next UK General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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