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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative Party suffered a poor result in the City of Chester parliamentary by-election that took place on 1 December. The main opposition centre-left Labour Party retained the seat with 61.2% of the vote, a swing of 13.8% from the Conservatives to Labour.
- The 22.4% of the vote recorded is the lowest for the Conservatives in Chester since 1832 in terms of vote share, although perhaps not too much should be read into the result given the seat has broadly trended towards Labour in recent years, and the Conservatives are seen to have run a low-key campaign.
- A more worrying sign for Sunak will be the announcement by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid (Con, Bromsgrove) that he would not be standing in the next general election.
- Javid is viewed as one of the most senior backbench MPs in the Conservative Party, having served as Chancellor, Health Secretary, Home Secretary, Housing & Local Gov't Secretary, Business Secretary, and Culture Secretary, as well as having run for the party leadership in 2019 and initially sought to run in the summer 2022 contest before pulling out before the first ballot.
- A sizeable number of Conservative MPs have announced that they will be standing down at the next election (seen as likely in winter 2024) - including a number of younger or shorter-serving MPs - and is seen as indicative of widespread expectations that the Conservatives could be set to lose a large number of seats and head into opposition.
Chart 1. City of Chester Election Results Timeline, % Vote Share
Source: Cheshire West and Chester Council, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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