SPAIN
The office of PM Pedro Sanchez has said that the 'institutional statement' regarding his future in office has been moved up by one hour to 1100CET (0500ET, 1000BST). Spain has been gripped by the political intrigue surrounding Sanchez, who has served in office since 2018 but has threatened to resign from office following the opening of a case against his wife by a judge investigating alleged corruption.
- Sanchez leads a multi-party minority gov't involving his centre-left Spainish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the leftist Sumar and other regionalist parties. It is supported in a confidence and supply agreement by other regionalist parties, including the pro-independence Junts per Catalunya.
- With a very narrow majority in the Congress of Deputies, should Sanchez resign it is unclear if the eventual new PSOE head and PM would be able to rely on the continued support of Junts, or whether a new deal would have to be agreed.
- Spanish politics remains deeply divided, with the main opposition centre-right People's Party (PP) and right-wing Vox still furious with Sanchez over his cooperation with Junts, and the amnesty offered to senior party figures involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum in exchange for Junts backing Sanchez's gov't following the 2023 election.
- Opinion polling shows the PP would increase its seat total if an election were held today, with the prospect of forming a gov't with Vox. This possibility could encourage leftist and regionalist parties to maintain the status quo, even if Sanchez leaves office.
Chart 1. Congress of Deputies, Seats
Source: congreso.es, MNI
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