PM Sunak's Popularity Drops w/Conservative Members Ahead Of By-Election

Latest polling from the Conservativehome political blog sees Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's popularity among his centre-right Conservative Party members fall dramatically in the space of a month. In theOctober survey, Sunak scored a net approval of +49.9. By the November survey this had fallen to +9.0, taking the PM from the fourth-highest Cabinet member in terms of popularity to the sixth-lowest. Inflationary pressures on households, tax hikes, and a lack of gov't ability to control immigration all seen as factors hitting Sunak's popularity.

• The Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt also records a sizeable decline in popularity with the party grassroots after a punishing autumn statement for household finances. Hunt's net approval fell from +29.7 in October to -9.9 in November, making him the second-lowest scoring cabinet minister.
• The poor polling for Sunak comes a day ahead of the City of Chester by-election, the first electoral contest of the PM's tenure. The seat was retained by the opposition centre-left Labour Party in the 2019 general election with a majority of 6,164 on 49.6% of the vote and has been Labour-held since 2015.
• Labour is overwhelmingly likely to retain the seat, but a poor performance for the Conservatives (coming third or lower) could put more pressure on the PM if it sparks another slew of incumbent MPs announcing that they will not be running in the next election (five in November so far).