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PMIs Higher Output Inflation Underpins Hawkish ECB Rhetoric

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

January flash PMI data recorded upside surprises for eurozone manufacturing and services, German services and French manufacturing. These signs of a steadying eurozone economy suggest the bloc may avoid a recession, as German/EZ services and French manufacturing PMIs edged back into expansive territory (over 50).

  • Selling prices will be the key cause for concern in the reports. Output charges increased despite easing input inflation reflecting upward pressure from wages and elevated costs.
  • Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global: "(the)upturn in the rate of inflation of selling prices for both goods and services [and employment growth] will add encouragement to the hawks to push for further monetary policy tightening.
  • New orders showed slower rates of reductions as demand proved to be more robust. Economic slowdown remains demand-driven as high interest rates and inflation dampens spending.
  • Employment growth accelerated, led by Germany as less muted demand outlooks were met with additional hires.
  • Outlooks recorded a sharp improvement, boosting confidence to the highest level since May '22, seeing additional strength from improved Chinese demand prospects.

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