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PMIs Signal Six Months of Contraction as Service Activity Dips

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK PMIs a sixth consecutive month of contraction to kick off 2023, underscoring recession risks as business activity experienced the fastest rate of decline in two years.

  • Manufacturing ticked up (46.7 from 45.3 in Dec), whilst services fell at the fastest pace in two years (48.0 after 49.9 in Dec) as the World Cup boost to demand faded.
  • New orders remained dampened by muted demand, albeit declining at a softer pace.
  • Prices charged increased, driven by high inflation and stronger wage inflation pressures, yet the rate of output inflation was substantially weaker (Aug '21 low) as firms struggled to pass on higher prices.
  • Employment numbers were reduced slightly, led by a reduction in manufacturing jobs.
  • Outlooks picked up on improved global outlooks and slower inflation in 2023.
  • Ahead of next Thursday's BOE rate decision, the January PMI data largely represents sustained economic weakness. Yet the continued growth in output charges and wage pressure may add to the argument for a 50bp hike (markets are currently pricing 45bp).

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