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POLAND: Goldman Sachs More Dovish on Inflation Outlook Than NBP

POLAND
  • Goldman Sachs hold a much more dovish view on the inflation outlook than the NBP. While they expect the limited rebound from the trough in March to be sustained somewhat through the rest of this year on the back of unfavourable base effects, they view this as temporary.
  • The proposed legislation limiting the expiry of the energy price measures has now been fully passed, with the resulting effect reported to be around +1.5pp to headline inflation (much less than their original estimate of +3.0-3.2pp, in the case of a full removal).
  • Goldman Sachs ultimately continue to expect lower-than-expected inflation pressures to eventually lead the NBP to cut rates toward the end of this year, although they acknowledge that the risks are skewed towards a later recommencement of easing.
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