Poll Points To Close Race In Important Istanbul Mayoral Election

With local elections approaching on 31 March, the latest opinion polling ahead of one of the headline races - the Istanbul mayoral contest - shows a close race. Incumbent Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu from the centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) holds a narrow lead over his main challenger, former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Murat Kurum from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's right-wing conservative Justice and Devlopment Party (AKP).

• MAK poll: İmamoğlu (CHP): 44% (-10), Kurum (AKP): 42% (-3), Kavuncu (İYİ): 4% (new), Cepni/Danis Beştaş (DEM): 3% (new), Altınöz (YRP): 3% (new), Karamahmutoğlu (ZP): 2% (new), Aydın (SP): 1%.+/- vs. 2019 election. Fieldwork: 21 February-3 March 2024. Sample size: 5,700
• The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) has decided to run two relative political unknowns as its candidates following the withdrawal of Basak Demirtas, wife of the jailed Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas, in February. This decision could boost İmamoğlu's chances of re-election. Relatively weak DEM candidates could see a greater proportion of the Kurdish vote go to İmamoğlu given the Kurdish community's broad opposition to the Erdogan gov't.
• İmamoğlu is seen as a potential future presidential candidate for the CHP. A loss in the Istanbul election could damage his prospects of running for the presidency in 2028.
• Earlier in the month, Erdogan garnered headlines by indicating that the March elections would be his final campaign and he would not run for office again in 2028. If this is the case it would mark a sea-change in Turkish politics.