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Poll-Sunak Scores Better w/Swing Voters Than Truss


Latest YouGov polling of 5,000 UK voters shows that of the two candidates vying for the Conservative Party leadership, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is less unpopular than Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

  • Respondents asked 'Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following? '. Among all respondents Sunak's net rating (favourable minus unfavourable) stood at -30 to Truss' -32.
  • Of those who voted Conservative in the 2019 GE but would vote for the main opposition centre-left Labour Party now, Sunak's net rating was -25 to Truss' -45. Finally, of those respondents who voted Conservative in 2019 but are not sure who they would vote for now, Sunak's net rating stood at -12 to Truss' -16.
  • Among all respondents, Sir Keir Starmer is the leader with the best net rating, standing at -18, while outgoing PM Boris Johnson sits at a lowly -45. As would be expected, among former Conservative voters now leaning to Labour Starmer's rating stands at +57 with Johnson's at -90, while among Conservatives who are not sure Starmer's rating of -59 compared to -22 could cause some concern for Labour.
  • Despite the polling showing Sunak performing better with swing voters, Truss remains the strong favourite to win the contest. Smarkets shows betting markets assigning a 83.3% implied probability that Truss wins the contest to Sunak's 13.9%.
Chart 1. Opinion Poll, 'Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following?' NET favourability scores shown

Source: YouGov. Fieldwork: 10-24 July. 4,946 respondents.

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