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Polling Shows PM Orban's Fidesz Retaining Lead Amid Russia About-Turn


Opinion polling from Hungary ahead of the 3 April legislative election shows Prime Minister Viktor Orban's right-wing populist Fidesz-KDNP alliance maintaing a narrow lead over the opposition United for Hungary alliance of challenger Peter Marki-Zay.

  • Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Orban - previously Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally among EU member state leaders - has performed an about turn, allowing the deployment of NATO troops on Hungarian soil and supporting EU sanctions against Russia (although not on Russian hydrocarbon exports, which Hungary is particularly reliant on).
  • This comes as public opinion has come out strongly in opposition to Russia, meaning if Orban did not fall in line behind other EU leaders he risked a backlash from voters.
  • The war close to Hungary's borders could, though, end up supporting Orban's bid for a fourth consecutive term in office, with voters potentially inclined to support a leader with significant experience at a time of crisis than installing a new PM.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6 Poll Moving Average

Source: Median, Republikon, Nezopont, Publicus, Zavecz Research, IDEA, MNI

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