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The latest Berkely/IGS poll on the expected recall election against California Governor Gavin Newsom shows the initiative failing to gain traction, while potential Republican challengers are also struggling to break through into state-wide consciousness.

  • New Berkeley / IGS poll (April 29-May 5) of California. Sample size: 10,289 registered voters
    • Support for recalling Newsom: Support- 36%, Oppose- 49%, Undecided-15%.
    • Newsom approval: 52%
    • Recall election ballot test: Kevin Faulconer (R) - 22%, John Cox (R) - 22%, Doug Ose (R) - 14%, Caitlyn Jenner (R) - 6 %
  • At present, the required signatures have been submitted for the recall to take place, but we are in a 30-day period where the Newsom campaign can try to convince people to remove their signatures from the petition to take the total below the threshold required to trigger a recall.
  • With this being an unlikely prospect, the recall election would have two questions. The first would ask whether Newsom should be recalled as California governor. The second vote would count if more than 50% of those voting chose to recall Newsom, and would ask who his replacement should be.
  • No Republican candidate is making significant breakthroughs, with former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox (both of whom lost to Democrat Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial race) leading a crowded pack. Celebrity and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner polls just 6% despite (or perhaps due to) widespread media coverage of her candidacy.
  • Nevertheless, the potential recall remains a way off (likely in November 2021), and a such much could change. The impact of the election could be significant, with the Governor of California commands the largest public funding pot in the US outside of the federal gov't, while media estimates state the recall election race could cost as much as USD400mn according to the president of the California Assn. of Clerks and Elected Officials.