Potential For Political Instability Should PM Sanchez Resign

The shock announcement late on 24 April that PM Pedro Sanchez is considering his position as President of the Government risks engendering notable political uncertainty within the already-fragile Spanish political landscape. A court has opened a corruption investigation into Sanchez's wife, with the PM stating that he will announce to the Spanish public on Monday 29 April whether he will remain in office or resign. Sanchez and his wife, Begoña Gómez, deny any wrongdoing.

• Sanchez has served as PM since June 2018, and has managed to hold on to power despite significant policial uncertainty and perceived electoral setbacks. He currently leads a minority gov't that includes separatist parties and holds a razor-thin majority in the Congress of Deputies.
• Should Sanchez vacate office, it is not clear a) who his successor would likely be, and b) whether this individual would be able to keep the Catalan separatist parties on-side to ensure a majority and avoid potential snap elections.
• To add to the complications, Catalonia holds snap regional elections on 12 May. The heightened political rhetoric surrounding the vote could damage relations between Sanchez's centre-left PSOE and the pro-independence Junts, that work together at the national level, but are opponents in the Catalan parliament.
• Should Junts withdraw its support for the gov't under a new PM it would deny the PSOE-Sumar minority gov't its majority, risking votes of no confidence and a snap election.

Chart 1. Spanish Congress of Deputies, Seats