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Pre US CPI Fed Pricing

STIR FUTURES
  • The ECB decision sees Fed pricing firm with a cumulative 94bps now priced with the June meeting, potentially leaving larger scope to whipsaw if US CPI misses.
  • With March still largely pinned at 25bps (27.5bps currently), the adjustment has been in both May and Jun meetings, individually seen with 37bps (+2bps) and 29.5bps (+2bps) hikes.
  • The Tsy curve flattened 2.5bps to 25bps but does little to change the narrative, still close to the recent lows of 20bps.

Source: Bloomberg

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