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Protests Have Little Market Impact At Present, But Could Shift Sharply

IRAN

Major protests continue across Iran for the second week, sparked by the death in custody of 22-year old Mahsa Amini, who fell into a coma after being detained by the country's 'morality police'. At present the protests are not having any outsized impact, but there are scenarios in which market participants would begin to take notice.

  • At present, the protests do not pose a critical threat to the gov't of hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi However, should the gov't look to be destabilised to the point of a change in leadership it could have a wider market impact.
  • There looks to be little prospect of a revival of the Iran nuclear deal any time soon, with demands from Iran on IAEA inspections being deemed unacceptable by the US and E3 nations. Should a new reformist administration come to power, it could boost the prospect of a deal markedly.
  • This could see US and Western sanctions on Iran relaxed, while Iranian hydrocarbons would be allowed to legally reach global markets once again.
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Major protests continue across Iran for the second week, sparked by the death in custody of 22-year old Mahsa Amini, who fell into a coma after being detained by the country's 'morality police'. At present the protests are not having any outsized impact, but there are scenarios in which market participants would begin to take notice.

  • At present, the protests do not pose a critical threat to the gov't of hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi However, should the gov't look to be destabilised to the point of a change in leadership it could have a wider market impact.
  • There looks to be little prospect of a revival of the Iran nuclear deal any time soon, with demands from Iran on IAEA inspections being deemed unacceptable by the US and E3 nations. Should a new reformist administration come to power, it could boost the prospect of a deal markedly.
  • This could see US and Western sanctions on Iran relaxed, while Iranian hydrocarbons would be allowed to legally reach global markets once again.