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Q4 GDP Growth Prints At +1.0%, Seasonally Adjusted Q/Q Reading Comes In Flat

POLAND
Flash data showed that Poland's GDP rose 1.0% Y/Y in the final quarter of 2023, which was just below the +1.1% consensus forecast. The seasonally adjusted sequential reading was flat, exceeding the -0.3% Q/Q consensus call. Local sell-side desks pointed to the impact of weak consumption (already flagged in commentary to the earlier estimate for the whole 2023), while reiterating that growth should accelerate this year.
  • ING said that "household consumption does not want to grow and the global industry paused its expansion after a strong start to 2023, which was evident also in Poland." They add that they have a positive view of the prospects for 2024, however. They see the economy growing +3.0% Y/Y this year, mainly due to a rebound in consumption.
  • mBank note that the economy grew 1.7% Y/Y if adjusted by seasonal factors, which means that "the economy remained in the same place compared to Q3." They still expect GDP to grow by 3.5% Y/Y this year.
  • The Polish Economic Institute note that investments and trade surplus were the main engines of growth in 2023 amid weak consumption, but they expect these trends to reverse in 2024. They play down the importance of the seasonally adjusted readings, pointing to their high historical volatility, and note that growth will significantly accelerate this year.
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