Rand Takes Hit As CSIR Predicts Disappointing Election Result For ANC

Pressure emerged on South African assets as wires carried predictions based on the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research's (CSIR's) model, which suggested that the ANC could perform worse than initially expected.

• The model puts ANC on 41.5%, with the DA on 22.3%, MK on 12.8% and EFF on 9.0%. It is based on an extrapolation of early results and the CSIR said it has a 2% margin of error. The predictions will be updated throughout the day.
• It these predictions prove accurate, the ANC would need to bargain with the DA or the EFF/MK, while the prospect of forming a governing coalition with one or more smaller parties would be off the table.
• Spot USD/ZAR sits at 18.6216, around 2,250 pips above neutral levels. Overnight implied volatility remains close to highest levels since 2020. SAGB yields shot higher across the curve.