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RBC Looking For Steepest Housing Correction Of Past Five Downturns

CANADA
  • Having already forecast a moderate recession in mid-2023, RBC go further and see the housing market on track for the steepest correction of the past five national downturns.
  • That involves prices falling more than 12% by 2Q23 with sales falling 23% this year and 15% in 2023 as housing affordability is on track to reach worst-ever levels.
  • They keep to their BoC rate forecast for a terminal 3.25% by Oct before a cut to 3% in Oct’23, but forecast a 5Y GoC yield of 2.8% for Dec’22, 2.7% for Jun’23 and 2.4% for Dec’23 (trading 2.85% today after rallying 12bps).

Source: RBC

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