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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS/SUPPLY
Whatever lingering doubt over whether Treasury would raise coupon auction sizes in the coming quarter was dispelled by its release of financing estimates for the next 5 months, which included an upward revision of $274B for Jun-Sep vs May’s refunding round. (More in our August UST Issuance Deep Dive).
- MNI’s current expectations incorporate those projections and are higher than those that we indicated in our July Deep Dive (which were largely based on TBAC's recommended financing last quarter which pointed to to a $1-2B upsizing across the board).
- This includes $2B raises to 2s/3s/5s and $1B to 7s in each month, with 10Y sizes $3B higher, 20Y up $1B, and 30Y up $2B. If anything this is conservatively low for 7s, 20s, and 30s.
- Overall this means nominal sales will total $249B in Oct, vs $222B equivalent in the prior quarter.
- We should also note that while we only forecast the quarter ahead, we expect further increases of a similar magnitude at the Nov refunding.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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