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Regional Vote Gains Attention As Snap Election Announcement Looms

CANADA

On Tuesday 17 August voters in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia go to the polls to elect members to their House of Assembly. The contest would not usually gain significant market attention, but for the fact that expectations mount for a snap general election mooted to take place on 20 September. This would make the Nova Scotia contest the final regional vote before the general election.

Chart 1. Nova Scotia Regional Election Opinion Polling, %

Source: Narrative Research, Leger, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, MQO Research, MNI

  • Since the announcement of the regional vote in July, the centrist Nova Scotia Liberal Party have failed to make ground, and indeed have seen their polling lead eaten away by the centre-right Progressive Conservatives and notably the leftist New Democratic Party.
  • Yesterday Reuters reported that according to four sources Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make the announcement of his intention to dissolve parliament and hold a snap election on 15 August, with the date of the election set for 20 September.
  • While votes in a regional election will centre more on local issues than national ones, the heightened political focus at the federal level will mean the result in NS will be watched closely for any signals that gain be gained for the general election.

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